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Bhushan Lodha
5/20/20260 comments

what are their competitors saying?

In their Q1 2026 earnings calls, Brown & Brown’s competitors confirmed they are fighting the exact same market headwinds—specifically plunging property rates. However, what these peers are saying reveals a massive split in how the industry is absorbing the blow based on how diversified their business models are.

Here is what the rest of the industry is reporting right now:

The Mega-Brokers (Marsh, Aon, Gallagher)

The massive, highly diversified global brokers are absolutely seeing the property market soften, but their exposure is diluted across massive consulting, health, and casualty divisions. Because of this, they are acknowledging the pain but still posting 4% to 5% organic growth.

  • Marsh McLennan (MMC): CEO John Doyle directly confirmed the softening, stating that primary commercial rates dropped 5% overall in Q1, with property rates specifically dropping 9%. However, they leaned heavily on their Consulting and Health/Wealth segments (which grew 5%) to mask the property drag.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG): Gallagher reported 5% organic growth but acknowledged severe headwinds in property. They noted that property premiums were down 7%, with the pressure "most pronounced in cat-exposed and larger risks." They explicitly pointed out that their larger corporate clients are driving this downward pressure by successfully demanding lower premiums from carriers.
  • Aon (AON): Aon posted 5% organic growth but warned of steep pricing pressure in the reinsurance sector. Management noted that April 1 renewals saw rates down 15% to 20% in both the US and Japan.

The Wholesale & Specialty Peers (Ryan Specialty)

If you want to see a direct mirror of Brown & Brown's struggles, you have to look at wholesale and specialty-focused peers like Ryan Specialty (RYAN), who operate in the exact same Excess & Surplus (E&S) property sandbox as BRO's Specialty Distribution segment.

Ryan Specialty's Q1 2026 call sounded almost identical to BRO's:

  • The Squeeze: RYAN management reported that property rates on large and catastrophe-exposed accounts declined 25% to 35% (perfectly matching BRO's estimates).
  • The Pain: Because they lack the massive consulting divisions of a Marsh or Aon, RYAN was forced to slash their full-year margin guidance and warned investors that they expect organic growth to drop to near 0% in Q2. They cited "intensified competition" and worse-than-expected property rate declines.

The Shared Industry Playbook: AI as a Defense

Across the board, every single competitor is deploying the exact same defensive strategy as BRO: Artificial Intelligence.

Because brokers cannot control falling premium rates, they are desperately trying to protect their profit margins by using AI to slash their internal operating costs.

  • Aon expects to have invested $1.3 billion in talent and technology by year-end, specifically highlighting "Aon Business Services" to automate client execution.
  • Marsh McLennan spent a massive portion of their call defending against the idea that AI would replace brokers. CEO John Doyle bluntly stated, "If you think we're a discounted insurance broker, yes, I might be a little bit worried, but we're not... That's not what we do," emphasizing that AI will just make their human advisors faster and more efficient, not obsolete.

Ultimately, the competitors are saying exactly what BRO is saying: catastrophe property rates are in freefall. The only difference is that the mega-brokers are big enough to hide it, while the specialty brokers are taking the hit right on the chin.

Source: Brown & Brown's Organic Growth Challenges

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