what are the chances that eggs prices will drop further? what needs to happen for that?
The chances of wholesale egg prices dropping significantly further from where they are right now (mid-2026) are virtually zero. We have hit the absolute, painful bedrock of the commodity cycle.
To understand why, you have to look at the math of where prices are currently sitting. As of April and May 2026, the national wholesale price for large, conventional loose eggs crashed to roughly $0.22 per dozen (22 cents).
At 22 cents a dozen, the price of an egg is significantly lower than the physical cost of the chicken feed required to produce it. Farmers are currently bleeding cash on every conventional egg they sell.
Because prices cannot stay below the cost of production forever, a further drop is economically impossible without bankrupting the entire conventional industry. However, for prices to theoretically drop even lower (e.g., into the teens), here is the exact combination of events that would need to happen:
1. A Total Collapse in Grain Prices
The absolute floor of an egg's price is dictated by the cost of corn and soybean meal (which make up about 70% of a chicken's diet). For eggs to drop below 20 cents a dozen and stay there, we would need a historic, record-breaking bumper crop in the Midwest that causes corn and soy prices to completely collapse, drastically lowering the break-even cost for farmers.
2. Irrational Farmer Behavior (Refusing to Cull)
When prices drop below the cost of production, the standard industry response is to "cull the flock" (kill off older, less productive hens) and stop buying new chicks. For prices to drop further, farmers would have to act completely irrationally—choosing to keep all 314+ million hens alive and laying eggs, intentionally flooding the market and accepting massive daily financial losses just to maintain market share.
3. Total Eradication of Avian Flu
Right now, the 2026 market is being dominated by the absence of massive High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. For prices to push any lower, we would need a guarantee of zero outbreaks heading into the fall migration season. Even a minor outbreak in a single commercial barn immediately tightens supply and creates a price floor.
4. A Collapse in Consumer Demand
While the supply side is currently flooded, the demand side (grocery stores and restaurants) is actually strong. Foodservice traffic for breakfast and quick-service restaurants has been recovering in 2026. For prices to drop further, you would need a sudden, massive shift in consumer habits—like a national boycott of eggs or a severe recession that causes consumers to stop eating breakfast out entirely.
The Reality Check
You cannot squeeze blood from a stone. Because farmers are losing money at 22 cents a dozen, they are already executing the exact measures required to fix the market: shrinking the flock. As the national flock size drops throughout the summer of 2026, supply will tighten, and wholesale prices will inevitably rebound back toward a sustainable break-even point.