Management expects tech vendor CV to continue accelerating through 2025, reaching more "normal-like" states as the industry finishes its post-pandemic digestion of over-hired staff and pulled-forward demand has it?

Based on Gartner's earnings calls through early 2026, management's expectation for tech vendor contract value (CV) acceleration has largely materialized, though the segment has not yet fully reached its historical "normal" growth range of 12%–16% across all sub-segments.

Status of the Tech Vendor CV Recovery

• Sequential Acceleration: Tech vendor CV growth did in fact turn the corner and accelerated for several consecutive quarters throughout 2024 and 2025. This followed a trough in 2023 where the segment was "essentially flat".
• Software and Services Strength: By late 2025, software and services tech vendors—which represent the bulk of the segment—returned to high-single to low-double-digit growth. Small tech software, in particular, showed the most significant improvement over the preceding 12 months.
• Impact of "Digestion": Management noted that the industry has largely finished the post-pandemic digestion of over-hired staff. While large-scale layoffs continued to impact specific large tech accounts through 2024, the "recalibration" of these accounts reached a more stable state by 2025.

Remaining Headwinds and "Normal-Like" State

While the segment is much healthier than in 2023, it faced new "muting" factors in late 2025 that have slightly delayed a full return to the 12%–16% growth range:

• Tariff Impacts: By the second half of 2025, management reported that approximately 20%–30% of tech vendor CV fell into sub-sectors affected by tariffs, such as hardware and semiconductors. This has created a drag on those specific areas, even as software remains robust.
• Small Tech Churn: Churn in the "small end" of the market (companies that lost funding from the 2021-2022 bubble) has persisted longer than some larger accounts, though this is being offset by strong new logo generation among AI-based startups.

Management’s Current Outlook

As of the early 2026 commentary, management maintains high confidence that the tech vendor segment will reach its 12%–16% medium-term growth objective. They expect CV growth to continue re-accelerating over the course of 2026 as they lap the more challenging macro impacts and as the sales force—which is now more tenured—gains further productivity.