But mid terms are coming soon

You have hit on the exact political gamble that has Washington on edge right now. With the US midterm elections coming up in November 2026, standard political logic dictates that an incumbent president should do everything possible to avoid high gas prices, rising interest rates, and inflation. Voters historically punish the president's party at the polls when the economy hurts.

So why is Trump risking the midterms by dragging out the economic pain of "Operation Epic Fury"?

Political analysts and insiders point to a few key calculations driving his strategy:

1. The "Rally 'Round the Flag" Bet

Historically, Americans tend to back the commander-in-chief during major overseas conflicts. Trump is heavily leaning into a narrative of unprecedented American strength. By constantly highlighting the sheer destructive power of the U.S. military and framing the conflict as a definitive end to a 45-year terrorist threat, he is betting that patriotic fervor and the optics of a historic military victory will override voters' frustration at the gas pump.

2. The Timeline (Winning Before November)

We are currently in May 2026, and the midterms are six months away. Trump's calculation is likely that the U.S. can force Iran’s total capitulation well before November. If he secures a permanent end to Iran's nuclear program and fully reopens (or even asserts U.S. control over) the Strait of Hormuz, he can campaign on having secured global energy markets and achieved a massive geopolitical victory. He is banking on a "peace dividend"—where the war ends, oil prices crash back down, and the stock market rallies just as voters head to the polls.

3. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

Trump recently sparked a geopolitical firestorm by sharing a post referring to the waterway as the "Strait of Trump" and claiming the U.S. has "total control" via a naval blockade. If he successfully breaks Iran's historical chokehold on the strait and guarantees free, toll-free navigation under U.S. naval protection, it would be a generational strategic victory. He likely believes that achieving this will cement his legacy and make his party untouchable in the midterms, regardless of temporary bond market volatility.

4. Blaming the Fed

If bond yields stay high and borrowing costs hurt Americans, Trump has a well-worn playbook: blame the Federal Reserve. Throughout his political career, he has aggressively criticized the Fed for keeping interest rates high. If the economy slows down due to the geopolitical shock, it is highly likely he will deflect the blame onto the Fed Chairman, separating his military victory from the domestic economic fallout in the eyes of his base.

5. The Base Demands a "Total Win"

Trump’s political brand is built on never backing down and rejecting traditional, nuanced diplomatic compromises. He promised to "cut off the head of the snake," and the initial strikes did exactly that by taking out Iran's Supreme Leader. To accept a compromised ceasefire now—especially one that leaves Iran with any of its highly enriched uranium stockpile—would look like a retreat to his most loyal supporters.

The Bottom Line: Trump is playing a high-stakes game of chicken. He is betting that the Iranian regime will collapse under the pressure of the U.S. blockade and airstrikes long before the American consumer collapses under the pressure of high fuel prices and rising bond yields. If he's right, he wins a historic victory just in time for the midterms. If he's wrong, the economic blowback could cost his party control of Congress.