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Bhushan Lodha
5/23/20260 comments

I don’t understand trumps game plan here, why isn’t he ending the war knowing that countries will sell bonds which is not good for him or USA

The paradox you are pointing out is exactly what economists and geopolitical analysts are currently highlighting: the prolonged 2026 war is actively reigniting US inflation and pushing up Treasury yields, yet the Trump administration continues to hold a hard line.

Based on the administration's public statements, leaked briefings, and current negotiating postures, Trump’s game plan is rooted in prioritizing absolute military and strategic dominance over immediate macroeconomic fallout.

Here is why he is not simply ending the war to save the bond market:

1. The Demand for Total Capitulation

Trump's stated objective is not just to punish Iran, but to permanently dismantle it as a regional power. His administration has stated they will only sign an agreement "if we get everything we want."

  • Maximalist Goals: The US and Israel want the total destruction of Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, the complete dismantling of its nuclear program, and the end of its proxy network (Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.).
  • Refusal to Compromise: When temporary ceasefires (like the April 2026 Islamabad Talks) failed, Trump announced he no longer cared about negotiations. He wants a decisive, total victory, believing that ending the war now without permanently neutering Iran would make the initial strikes (and the subsequent chaos) pointless.

2. Dismissing the Economic Fallout

There is strong evidence that the administration either underestimated the economic blowback or simply does not view it as the priority.

  • Ignoring the Warnings: Before launching Operation Epic Fury in February 2026, the Joint Chiefs of Staff explicitly warned President Trump that an attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. According to leaked reports, Trump dismissed the possibility, believing Iran would capitulate rather than close the strait—and if they did close it, the US military could easily force it open.
  • Public Posture: In May 2026, Trump explicitly stated that he does not "think about Americans' financial situation" when negotiating with Iran. He is treating the economic pain—including rising bond yields and inflation—as a secondary issue compared to the historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian regime.

3. The "Decapitation" Trap

Ironically, one of the reasons Trump can't easily end the war is because of how successful the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes were. By killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top officials in the opening hours of the war, the US shattered Iran's leadership structure. Trump has demanded that the Iranian delegation present a peace proposal backed by "all factions" of the Iranian government. However, with the government in disarray and the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now fully in charge of wartime decisions, there is no unified, moderate leadership left in Tehran capable of actually surrendering to Trump's sweeping demands.

4. Projecting Absolute Strength

Politically, Trump has repeatedly claimed victory, stating on multiple occasions that Iran has "nothing left in a military sense" and even floating the idea of taking over the Strait of Hormuz and renaming it the "Strait of Trump." To back down now to appease the bond market or stabilize oil prices would contradict his narrative that the US has already won and that Iran is "dying to make a deal."

In short: Trump’s game plan relies on the belief that the US economy can absorb the shock of rising yields and oil prices longer than the Iranian regime can survive American bombs. He is willing to sacrifice short-term macroeconomic stability in exchange for what he views as a permanent, historic victory in the Middle East.

Source: Fuel Price Stability Amidst Conflict

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