and what growth rate is expected?

For the rest of 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth of roughly 20% in Q2, 23% in Q3, and 21% in Q4 — with full-year 2026 earnings growth expected at around 21%. FactSet

That's a significant step-up from where expectations started the year. At the start of 2026, analysts were forecasting full-year EPS growth of around 13% — that estimate has since been revised up to 18-21% as Q1 results came in stronger than expected. NYSE

Two things are worth flagging about these forward estimates though.

First, they are almost certainly too optimistic in their current form. Analyst estimates are structurally biased upward — companies and analysts both prefer to set a bar they can beat. The actual growth rate historically comes in a few percentage points below the estimate made at the start of a quarter.

Second, and more importantly, these estimates were largely formed before the full impact of $100+ oil prices had time to work through corporate cost structures. Of the 211 S&P 500 companies that cited "Middle East" on their Q1 earnings calls, only a small number actually lowered their EPS guidance for 2026 — suggesting most companies are either hoping for a quick resolution, or haven't yet quantified the damage. Q2 guidance will be the first real test of how badly energy costs are squeezing margins across the economy. FactSet

So the market is essentially priced for 20%+ earnings growth to land on schedule, in an environment where the inputs to that growth — stable energy costs, resilient consumer spending, continued AI investment — are all under pressure simultaneously.