Did calm see this coming and started already taking steps to lessen the damage?
Yes. Unlike Vital Farms, which operated under a linear growth narrative, Cal-Maine Foods’ (NASDAQ: CALM) executive team treats the boom-and-bust cycle as an inevitable law of gravity. They did not just see the crash coming; their entire capital allocation strategy during the record profits of 2024 and 2025 was specifically designed to insulate the company from the exact oversupply glut happening right now in 2026.
In their recent Q3 2026 earnings call, CEO Sherman Miller explicitly stated that the current price softness is a "real-time test of our strategy," designed to prove the company can manage mix, cost, and capital "across the cycle."
Here are the specific, preemptive steps Cal-Maine took to cushion the blow of the 2026 crash:
1. The Defensive "Specialty & Prepared" M&A Spree
Cal-Maine knew the bottom would eventually fall out of conventional commodity eggs, so they aggressively used their boom-cycle cash to buy their way into higher-margin, insulated categories.
- Specialty Capacity: In late 2024 and early 2025, they acquired competitors like ISE America and Fassio Egg Farms, instantly adding massive cage-free and specialty production capacity without having to build it from scratch.
- Prepared Foods: They expanded beyond the shell egg market entirely to create a stable revenue floor. They acquired Echo Lake Foods, Creighton Brothers (March 2026), and most recently, the Van's Foods gluten-free waffle brand (May 2026).
- The Result: By Q3 2026, specialty eggs and prepared foods accounted for 52.9% of their total net sales—meaning more than half of their revenue was completely shielded from the 70% collapse in conventional egg spot prices.
2. Vertical Cost Cutting
When commodity selling prices drop, the only way to survive is to aggressively slash production costs. Anticipating tighter margins, Cal-Maine focused on vertical integration. For example, in February 2025, they acquired Deal-Rite Feeds (including feed mills and storage facilities) in North Carolina. By owning the feed supply chain in close proximity to their farms, they preemptively lowered their highest variable input cost right before the egg market crashed.
3. Shifting to "Hybrid Pricing Models"
Cal-Maine deliberately restructured how they sell their conventional eggs. Instead of leaving all their commodity volume exposed to the brutal, daily fluctuations of the wholesale spot market, management shifted a larger proportion of their conventional egg contracts into "hybrid pricing models." This created a smoother, more predictable revenue curve that absorbed some of the immediate shock when wholesale prices plummeted.
4. Capital Returns Over Reckless Expansion
While Vital Farms was pouring capital into massive new infrastructure projects assuming demand would hold forever, Cal-Maine initiated a shareholder defense plan. Recognizing they were at the top of the cycle, Cal-Maine's board authorized a massive $500 million share repurchase program in February 2025. They used peak earnings to buy back stock and reward shareholders, entering the 2026 bust with over $1 billion in cash and zero long-term debt.
Ultimately, Cal-Maine engineered its balance sheet and product mix so that it could comfortably absorb a 90% drop in net income this quarter without facing an existential liquidity crisis.