Give me exact timeline of current breakout cycle

The current "boom-and-bust" cycle in the egg industry has been one of the most volatile on record, driven primarily by severe disease outbreaks followed by a massive supply overcorrection.

Here is the exact chronological timeline of how the market swung from record shortages to the current 2026 price crash:

1. The Catalyst (2022 – Early 2024): The HPAI Escalation

The cycle was triggered by the relentless spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Unlike previous outbreaks that were contained quickly, this strain of bird flu lingered and swept through commercial farms for years. By mid-2024, the United States had lost over 60 million egg-laying hens to the disease and mandatory depopulation protocols. As flocks shrank, wholesale and retail prices began a steady, aggressive climb.

2. The Climax (Late 2024 – Spring 2025): Record High Prices

The crisis hit its absolute peak during the winter baking season of 2024 and early 2025, creating a severe supply shock.

• Q4 2024: Outbreaks accelerated rapidly, with over 20 million laying hens wiped out in the fourth quarter alone.
• January 2025: The industry suffered its worst single month of the cycle, losing an estimated 23.3 million birds.
• February/March 2025: With supply decimated, the market hit an absolute peak. The national average retail price for a dozen Grade A large eggs soared past $6.00, with some regional wholesale benchmarks clearing $7.00 to $8.00 per dozen. Egg prices had risen roughly 150% year-over-year, becoming a primary driver of grocery inflation.

3. The Overcorrection (Mid 2025 – Late 2025): Aggressive Rebuilding

Because it takes roughly six months to raise a pullet (young hen) into a productive layer, the supply chain could not react immediately to the winter losses. However, enticed by record-breaking profit margins, farmers and massive commercial producers spent the spring and summer aggressively expanding hatcheries and rebuilding flocks.

• By the fourth quarter of 2025, the national layer inventory had recovered. In fact, total capacity exceeded historical averages as producers tried to hedge against future outbreaks.
• Simultaneously, consumer demand began to soften. Shoppers, trained by months of $6.00 egg cartons, had already shifted their buying habits to alternatives.

4. The Crash (Early 2026 – May 2026): The Glut

The newly expanded flocks reached maximum production age just as the threat of HPAI subsided, creating a massive oversupply.

• January to March 2026: HPAI detections fell to near-zero levels. With no disease culling the flocks, production capacity vastly outstripped consumer demand.

• April to May 2026: The market completely collapsed under the weight of the glut. Retail prices dropped by more than 60% year-over-year. The wholesale markets suffered an even more brutal crash:

• Farmgate Prices: The average price paid to farmers in the Midwest dropped 93% year-over-year, hitting roughly 25 cents per dozen in May 2026.

• The Breaker Market: Eggs destined for commercial liquid processing crashed by 96%, falling to a historic low of 8.7 cents per dozen.

As of May 2026, the wholesale price of eggs sits well below the break-even cost of production (which is roughly 79 cents per dozen), leaving farmers and producers operating at severe financial losses until the national flock naturally contracts.