How did CALM stock perform during last bust boom cycle

During the 2015–2017 boom-and-bust cycle—which serves as the clearest historical precedent for the current market—Cal-Maine Foods' (NASDAQ: CALM) stock behaved exactly as expected for a highly cyclical commodity company. It experienced a massive run-up followed by a devastating crash that completely erased all of its previous gains.

Here is a breakdown of how the stock performed through the different phases of that cycle:

1. The Run-Up and Peak (2015)

The cycle was triggered by the massive Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that devastated layer flocks and sent wholesale egg prices to record highs.

• Starting Point: Cal-Maine stock entered 2015 trading at approximately $38.65 per share.
• The Surge: As the severity of the shortage became clear and Cal-Maine's earnings exploded, the stock climbed rapidly through the spring and summer.
• The Top: By mid-October 2015, the stock reached its cycle peak of roughly $60.40 per share, representing an increase of over 56% in less than ten months.

2. The Overcorrection and Bust (2016 to Mid-2017)

Enticed by the record profits of 2015, the industry aggressively expanded flocks. By 2016, the market was severely oversupplied, and egg prices collapsed.

• The Slide: As egg prices fell throughout 2016, Cal-Maine's stock mirrored the decline. By September 2016, the stock had dropped back down to $38.54, essentially wiping out the entirety of the 2015 boom.
• The Bottom: The oversupply situation worsened into 2017, causing Cal-Maine to post net losses and suspend its dividend. The stock ultimately bottomed out around $36.20 in July 2017.
• Total Drawdown: From its 2015 peak to its 2017 trough, the stock suffered a 40% crash, wiping out tremendous shareholder value for anyone who bought at the top.

3. The Stabilization (Late 2017)

It took roughly 18 months of painful financial losses, farm closures, and reduced flock hatchings for the broader egg supply to naturally contract.

• The Recovery: By late 2017, the supply-demand balance finally normalized, and wholesale egg prices began to recover.
• Ending the Cycle: Cal-Maine's stock responded to the stabilizing market, climbing out of its trough to close out the year in December 2017 at $44.45 per share.

The Takeaway The 2015–2017 cycle perfectly illustrates the risk of holding pure commodity stocks. Investors who held Cal-Maine through the entire three-year cycle experienced massive volatility but ultimately saw very little net capital appreciation, highlighting why these stocks are notoriously difficult to buy and hold long-term.